The 2013 regular season begins for the Raiders on the road against last year's biggest surprise team, the Indianapolis Colts. According to what appears to be the majority opinion on Colt fansites (which, BTW, are far more reliable than professional publications) Indi looks to be in the thick of the playoff race this season. But what both fans and paid prognosticators seem to either ignore or minimize is the loss of Bruce Arians, their offensive coordinator who led them to a 9-3 record when head coach Tom Pagano was lost for most of the season due to leukemia. Under Pagano, the Colts were 2-2. That could have been because of his illness or maybe he would have led them to the same record as Arians. It's impossible to say. But what is certain is that in terms of coaching it was Arians who led the Colts last season.
Another thing to take into account is that the Colts won a lot of games by the skin of their teeth last year. Without a few lucky bounces and some last minute heroics by Andrew Luck, Indi could have ended up 5-11. But they didn't and that's what matters. They pulled together when they needed to and by the end of their games put up more points than their opponents did in eleven out of sixteen tries.
Now, it seems that while the Colts D hasn't been dramatically improved it should be somewhat better than last year's 26th overall ranking. But the big talk is centered around Andrew Luck and the Colt's offense. Luck had a helluva rookie season, took the team to the playoffs, and earned himself a spot in the Pro Bowl.
If you want to see his stats they're all over every sports site in the U.S. Suffice it to say he had an excellent year.
What all this means for the Raiders
One of the depressing things about being a fan of a team with meager talent and coaching skills is that what you hope to see rarely comes to pass and the things you want to see least pour out of your TV screen like a gigantic lesion weeping pus onto your living room floor.
In short, we'll be lucky if this one isn't over before the half. The Colts are hoping to implement a physical ground attack, a shorter, more rhythmic passing game, and even a pistol formation here and there to keep heat off of Luck. And against the Raiders, its all gonna work. This is a two edged sword for Indi because they're going to think that all the things they worked on in camp have paid off. Unfortunately for them, they won't really begin to find that out until they play other teams. On the Raiders end of things, here's what's up.
The Running Game
Supposedly McFadden is healthy. The coaching staff held him out of preseason due to a couple minor injuries that are really nothing; they've been saving him for the regular season. Supposedly. But if he is healthy then this would be a good chance for him to show that the Lis-Franc injury suffered two seasons ago didn't effectively end his career. If he still looks like he did last season, then come 2014 we're going to be doing some heavy RB shopping.
Behind McFadden are Rashad Jennings and Jeremy Stewart. To be honest, both looked better than McFadden in preseason.
But really, the big question mark as it pertains to the Raider running game is the offensive line. It won't matter who's carrying the ball if the running backs are slamming into 600 pounds of opposing fat on every down before they can even reach the line of scrimmage. For the sake of form I'll say that they need to open rushing lanes for the running backs to get through. Of course that's obvious but the O-line hasn't managed to a very good job of it in this preseason. It's not totally hopeless though. Until Indi can prove their defense isn't as bad as it was last year, the Raiders should (should) be able to get some yards on the ground, thereby hanging on to the ball and keeping the Colts offense off the field.
The Passing Game
As of right now, word has it that Terrelle Pryor will be the starting quarterback for the Raiders come Sunday. The big question for him is if he's actually ready to start in the NFL. The answer is: Probably Not.
No one can say if Pryor is actually a better quarterback than Matt Flynn. Against second stringers Pryor has looked like a god at times, making something from nothing. Against the starting D of the Seahawks he had a passer rating of under 10, considerably worse than Matt Flynn.
The good thing about Pryor though is that he can move. The guy will absolutely make some bad mistakes due to his inexperience and the offensive line should have apology cards already written out to him before the game ever starts. I'll even begin the first line of the written apology for them: "Dear Terrelle, I'm sorry I almost got you killed today..."
But Pryor should be able survive all four quarters. Matt Flynn would be a grey stain on the turf of Lucas Oil Stadium by the half, which in turn would hand the starting job to Pryor anyway. So apparently the coaching staff has decided to cut out the middleman give the kid his shot.
For whatever else I might say about Dennis Allen and his staff, they got this one right. There is no other quarterback on this team that gives the Raiders a chance to do jackshit except for Pryor. Maybe when the O-line as a group is good enough to stop one five year old girl from running into the mall parking lot we can find out if Flynn is worth anything, but until then the guy with the most mobility has to start. Enough of that.
There are some decent receivers on this team. Moore and Streater aren't exactly Rice and Taylor but they can perform. Rookie Brice Butler really tore it up in the preseason. And you know that Jacoby Ford is gonna burn the Colts defensive backfield a few times. It's just that Pryor needs to be able to recognize and take advantage when it happens. We have some guys at tight end. That really does sum up the position. Again, how well the receivers do will depend largely on how the O-line does. Are you beginning to see a pattern here?
Defense
If I was Catholic I'd be spending a lot of time at the local parish this week imploring St. Jude to implore God for help. Even if you aren't Catholic, pray to St. Jude anyway. He's the patron saint of hopeless causes. Outside of desperate prayer, the only thing Raider fans can hope for is that the worst case of the sophomore jinx to ever strike a player down happens to Andrew Luck on Sunday. The problem is though, Al Davis made a deal with Satan at some point in his life or he pissed off the pantheon of Hindu gods.
Whatever. Somewhere along the way, Al must have left a flaming bag of dogshit on some god's doorstep because ever since Superbowl XVIII we've had this sickening, reoccurring phenomenon of former players and coaches coming back to kick our ass over and over again. Think about it: Mike Shannahan, Marcus Allen, Jon Gruden. etc. Hopefully since Al is gone the curse has been lifted, but if Darrius Heyward Bey sets the receiving record for touchdowns in one game this Sunday we'll know that Mark Davis needs to call an exorcist.
The only hope the defense has is that the Colts fumble-dick their way through the game and hand them turnovers.
Special Teams
Jano will get us some points. King is the new punter, long live the King. Hopefully Jacoby Ford is fully back. If he is maybe he can get us a TD or at least close to the Colts endzone. That's if he doesn't shatter his pelvis getting off the bus in Indianapolis. I know nothing about the Colts special teams and I don't care. This game won't be close enough for that aspect of the game to matter anyway.
Coaching
Last season Dennis Allen was inept beyond any excuse. Like the victim of a disturbing violent crime, I don't care to rehash it. But it must be said that this preseason looked bad. Really bad. And until he shows the ability to get the most out of the players he has, rather than the non-existent ones he's consistently bitching about not having, it has to be assumed that he'll get out-coached in every phase of the game come Sunday.
Pretty much the same goes for the coordinators. Show us something. Anything.
Lack of talent doesn't mean you can't put a scare into the opposition. Last week, Norm Chow's Rainbow Warriors gave the USC Trojans all they could handle until SC's talent simply overwhelmed Hawaii. Give that boob Lane Kiffin Hawaii's talent and the Trojans would manage to be 0-14 while playing a 13 game schedule. But Chow knows what he has in his players and how to get the most out of them. That's what good coaches do.
We don't have good coaches.
The Point Spread
The Colts are favored by 10 points. I can't bring myself to bet against the Raiders. It just seems so wrong. But there's easy money there for you if you can stomach it (or if you're not a Raider fan).
Score Prediction
This is lame but I've managed to nail it once or twice in my life.
Colts 34
Raiders 13
Finally
This is our first step on the road to getting the number one pick in the 2014 NFL draft. I could be convinced that the first step was actually when Dennis Allen was hired but I've harped on that enough. Next year will bring better days: a new coaching staff, promising draft picks, and a chance to grab some good and maybe even great players in free agency.
So endure. Gut it out. Better times are ahead; just not this season. We all hope that the team looks respectable yet we all realize it probably won't... There's no such thing as a fair-weather Oakland Raider fan. Those of us still here in Raider Nation deserve better than what we've had to put up with. If we're still reading and writing about the team, posting on websites, listening to the radio, and watching TV for any news of the team then we must be some thickheaded but dedicated football fans. And we deserve better than what this season is going to give us. Again though, next year we can expect better and should expect better.
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