The Jags are awful. They're so bad that even Raider fans like myself feel sorry for them. As it stands right now, I've personally scored just as many points in NFL games as the Jacksonville offense, although their special teams, by blocking a Kansas City punt attempt through the endzone is up on me 2-0.
Jacksonville started a corp of receivers last weekend that had a total of seven catches in NFL games combined. To keep with the theme of the first paragraph, that's only seven more catches than you and I have made in the NFL. To further harp on the matter, Julian Edelman of the Patriots made seven catches by the third quarter on Thursday night against the Jets.
The Jacksonville coaching staff also seems to have kicked off their debut with a resounding fart banked off a wooden pew during an aggrieved moment of silence at a funeral. Blaine Gabbert, a guy whose career is about fifteen games from evaporating was given the nod for the starting job at quarterback despite having a busted-up thumb on his throwing hand. During the game he injured his hand further and now he's gone for X amount of weeks. Not that I care what happens to the Jags after this Sunday but it's worth mentioning as a possible microcosm of the ineptitude of the Jacksonville coaching staff. Or maybe it was a stroke of genius because they wanted to get rid of him as quickly as possible. I'm going with the Stupid angle.
The word "Should" will now infest the following few paragraphs to the point where it loses all meaning. It's like saying the word "soap" over and over again. After a while it just becomes a sound. So hang in there.
Defense
Maurice Jones Drew: much respect to the guy but he's 29 now; ancient for an NFL running back who's carried the ball as many times as he has in his career. So it stands to reason that Raider defensive coordinator, Jason Tarver, should be able to stack eight in the box to shut down Jacksonville's only legitimate threat. Meanwhile Chad Henne, the Jags starting quarterback and guy who's made a career in the NFL by hanging on to backup status by his fingernails will squirm around like an insect that's had its legs pulled off by an eight year old boy/future serial killer. That's what should happen.
But we've read this script before. Last season, Raider fans breathed a sigh of relief that Jacksonville, a team perceived as even more horrible than Oakland would show up, roll over, and give Dennis Allen an easy victory. Instead, the Jags came into Oakland and put up a quick14-0 lead. Gabbert looked all-pro and MJD was scraping his cleats on our defense. Then, within a ten minute span, both Gabbert and MJD were lost for the game due to injury, thereby allowing the Raiders to eventually shamble to a heroic last second win on the foot of Sebastian Janokowski. Please note that here I use the word "heroic" as in "The winner of the boxing match made a heroic comeback win after his opponent's arms fell off in the third round".
And don't forget this: Three seasons ago, when Henne was the starting quarterback for Miami, the dude came in and tore us a a new one. That was another game that should have been an easy win. In that game, Henne wasn't the starter or the second string quarterback, he was the third string quarterback. God, what a painful day that was. The Phins traveled almost three thousand miles, started a guy who'd make more money in the Arena League, and put up 33 points against the Raider defense.
That shouldn't happen this time. Shut down their running game and put the pressure on Henne to win it for Jacksonville. It doesn't get much simpler than that. The Raider defense should be able to dominate this limp-dick Jacksonville offense.
Offense: The Running Game
First, the Colts defense sucks. It sucked last year and they didn't upgrade it much during the offseason. But even then, they shut down our running game. Granted, the Raider O-line bears close resemblance to Frankenstein's monster, patched together from dug up parts that were rotting in the ground. That doesn't matter though. Roger Goodell isn't going to make the Jags spot the Raiders an extra rushing touchdown. You have to deal with what you have. Which leads us to...
Darren McFadden: We're still hoping for a return to the days when he ran like lightning shot through the crack of a wall. Don't bet on it. Look for something in the vicinity of 50 or so yards on the ground and another 20 in the air.
The rest of our backs, plus Marcel Reece will put up another 50. And if Pryor can duplicate half of last week's scrambling performance then we should be looking at something in the neighborhood of 150+ yards on the ground. That would be nice.
The Passing Game
Right now we're all hoping that after over a decade without a franchise quarterback that we now have one in Terrelle Pryor. The dude looked good last week, no doubt about it. This week we expect more of the same. Pryor should be able to lead the offense to enough points so that at the end of the game, we have more than Jacksonville.
There's always the yin to the yang though. The Colts had one real game film of Pryor's tendencies; a game that took place last year.There's some preseason footage but that's limited in its usefulness. Now there's a full, current game film on Pryor. It's probably not enough to dissect him just yet, but Jacksonville isn't going in blind against him like the Colts were. Don't be shocked if we see Pryor bottled up a lot come Sunday.
Back to the yang: if the Jags have to put too much effort into containing Pryor's running game, that should create a lot of openings in the secondary for our receivers. It should also soften up the middle for McFadden but we'll see how that goes.
At the corners, the Jags are starting a rookie 7th round draft pick and Will Blackmon, who didn't even go through training camp with the team. Yes, I know that the corners don't make up the entirety of the pass defense but given adequate time, Pryor should be able to find open targets down-field more often than not. I also understand that the offensive line giving Pryor adequate time is an enormous assumption but let's throw all good sense into the crapper and assume they'll be able to do it often enough for receivers to get open and Pryor to hit them.
As far as the receivers go, they're coming along just fine so far. A lot of fans have said we need trade Denarius Moore or are spouting other similar nonsense. At the very least, it's nonsense for now. The receivers and Terrelle Pryor are now into their second full week of taking snaps together. With the Jacksonville corner situation being what it is, Moore, Streater, and Criner should be able to pick up some nice yardage.
One thing to keep in mind about the Jags defense is that the Jags offense never got farther into Cheifs territory than the KC 36 yard line. What this means is that under similar conditions, any defense in the league would be vulnerable to giving up multiple touchdowns. It's not safe to think that after one game that Jacksonville's defense is as bad as the stats say.
Special Teams
The Jags blocked a punt for their only points of the game last week. There you go.
Overall
A single week isn't enough to be able to accurately evaluate a team. Some of the better teams look in midseason form but the rest, who knows? I wouldn't be surprised if the Raiders lay an egg and Jacksonville gets their first win this Sunday. They shouldn't though. Last week, for the first time in I can't remember when, the Raider coaching staff appeared to make effective adjustments as the game went on against a pretty damn good quarterback. The same thing applies to the offense. The Raiders didn't have a single three and out on offense. And at 14-0, Oakland didn't cave in and call it a season. The truth of the matter is that the Colts didn't win that game, the Raiders lost it. If Jano makes that field goal before halftime then a simple chipshot with time running out for a 23-21 wins that game. I'm definitely not saying the loss was on Janokowski, it was a team loss. The point is that the Raiders were right there in a tough road game that anyone with any common sense, including myself, thought we be a killing field.
With that in mind, I tepidly predict a Raiders win.
Raiders 20
Jags 16
The Spread
The Raiders are favored by 5.5 points. My recommendation is to not bet the spread in this game. And if you bet the house on the Colts like I said to do last week, sorry; but what the fuck were you thinking? Who in their right mind takes serious the advice of an internet blogger when it comes to their money?
But if you must bet on this game then bet the under at 39.5. This thing could devolve into a low scoring pig fest with both offenses falling over themselves like bobble headed first graders in oversize helmets and pads.
Thanks for reading.
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